@tjrobertson52

It's just been reported that Sam Altman has called for a Code Red inside OpenAI. Apparently Google's Gemini has them very worried for the future of ChatGPT. I just want to talk about why I think they're right to be worried.

If you don't know, Gemini 3 was released a few weeks ago and it immediately crushed most of the benchmarks. While there's still are some areas other models are better at, people pretty much agree that overall Gemini is now the best model. But what makes this especially remarkable is how far behind Google was just a year ago.

It's been clear for a while now that Google is moving faster than the other model makers, so now that they have a lead, it's hard to see how they would ever lose it.

Google also has a huge distribution advantage, though. ChatGPT has become very popular. It's not nearly as popular as Google.

You might think no one uses Gemini, but Gemini is built into Google Search. And the prediction is that by quarter three of 2026, Google's AI mode will replace their traditional search results. And at that point, using Google is synonymous with using Gemini.

And as large language models replace traditional search engines, it's gonna start to be much more important how good they are at search. And that, I think, is Google's biggest advantage right now. Their search algorithm is just far more mature than ChatGPT's.

It's easy to scoff and say how bad Google search results are, but the truth is it searches really hard. I think it'll be several years before OpenAI could create a search engine as good as Google's. And it's not like OpenAI has a bunch of time.

They're currently hemorrhaging money. Estimates are that they won't be profitable until 2030 at this rate, and Google is already wildly profitable.

Google has the best image generation model by far with now Banana 2. And while OpenAI's Sora is probably still a better video generator than VO, I think there's a good chance we're about to see VO leap frog Sora. Especially now that OpenAI is putting all their eggs in the ChatGPT baskets.

Google has by far the best solution for enterprise corporations and privacy concerns with Gemini for enterprise. Google has, I think, the best platform for deploying your own agents. They control the agent to agent protocol, which is now the standard when agents talk to other agents, which is going to be a huge part of the economy.

Their model is by far the best at understanding what's on your screen. Images, video, O C R. Just gonna give them a huge advantage in agnostic use.

As we start to let AI's control more things on our own computer and give them their own browser. I think we're one or two years away from the next ChatGPT moment. As soon as these AI can reliably use their own browser.

So this point, it seems like it would take a miracle for Google not to win this whole thing.